China is accelerating the construction of a safe, low-carbon, smart, efficient, diversified and coordinated new energy system with the goal of supporting Chinese path to modernization, complementary advantages of fossil energy and new energy, and integrated development.
The construction of a new energy system under the background of the "dual carbon" target can be divided into three stages. Under the baseline scenario, China's primary energy demand will reach a peak of 45 tons of standard oil before 2035, and will continue to maintain a level of over 4 billion tons of standard oil after reaching the peak; By 2030, non fossil energy will be the first to meet the incremental demand and contribute 80% of the incremental energy demand; After 2030, fossil fuels will be replaced by large-scale alternatives, with non fossil fuels accounting for over 50% between 2040-2045.
The construction of a new energy system is divided into three stages. Build a base period (2022-2035), accelerate the development of new energy, and gradually reach the peak of fossil energy; During the acceleration period (2036-2050), the construction of new power systems will accelerate, and non fossil energy will orderly replace fossil energy; During the construction period (2051-2060), non fossil fuels will become the main energy source, and fossil fuels will gradually shift towards raw materials and emergency support.
The positioning of oil and gas in the new energy system continues to shift, but it remains an important component. Building a base period, the demand for oil will reach a peak of 780 million to 800 million tons by 2030, and by 2035, the proportion of oil and gas in primary energy will exceed 25%, maintaining its position as the main energy source; During the acceleration period, the demand for oil steadily declines and gradually shifts towards the chemical industry. Natural gas is in its peak plateau period, reaching a peak of 605.9 billion cubic meters by 2040, making it the main force in peak shaving power generation and transportation; During the construction period, oil became an indispensable supporting raw material, and natural gas shifted towards deep carbon reduction to ensure support. The demand for oil and gas decreased to 220 million tons and 380.8 billion cubic meters respectively.
Hydrogen and CCUS have become key technologies supporting energy transformation. Hydrogen has become a key option for deep carbon reduction in terminals. Hydrogen is an essential energy source for deep emissions reduction at the terminal level. In the three scenarios mentioned above, the demand for hydrogen will reach 120 million, 90 million, and 70 million tons by 2060, with renewable electricity for hydrogen production (green hydrogen) accounting for 85%, 80%, and 70%, respectively. CCUS is a bottom line technology for achieving carbon neutrality. In the above three scenarios, the decarbonization amount using CCUS technology will reach 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 2.1 billion tons by 2060.
The integrated development of fossil energy and new energy is the only way to build a new energy system. Under the construction of a new energy system, relying on flexible power generation from coal and natural gas to support peak shaving and frequency regulation of electricity, using petroleum as raw material to produce key new materials for the development of new energy, and promoting the deep integration of fossil energy and new energy development.
Source: ChemChina Information
